Posted 12:10 AM by Andy
Spring is making her appearance as winter recedes, and my mood, directly correlated with the ambient temperature and the sunshine index, is also picking up.

Vacation. In late January I went to Macau to scrutinize what this former Portuguese colony had become. My dabbled in blackjack and experienced wild swings in my bankroll and emotions while employing alternately a martingale and progressive betting strategy. There is no point to counting cards since the multiple decks are shuffled automatically. After each day’s entertainment budget was depleted, I went back to my hotel room and calculated the odds for various betting strategies, especially for the games that were variations on roulette where you wagered on a number or set of numbers and colors. As I had intuitively known, the odds heavily favored the house. What I found fascinating were the hedging opportunities available to the punter. For example, you can bet a number in the lower half of the sequence and hedge on the opposing half to decrease your risk. However, since there was no information advantage, the asymmetry favoring the house remained intact. Another amusing phenomenon is the way gamblers would assiduously record previous numbers that have come up in attempts to discern a pattern. As in any random event, there is none to be detected. There is no way a number is “due” just because it hasn’t been rolled recently, contrary to what many people believe. After I came back to Shanghai, I researched other methods to beat blackjack but they are all too sophisticated to master like shuffle-tracking, Ace-guiding, and other gambits. I did spend some time at Fisherman’s Wharf, a new tourism development area complete with a faux Roman amphitheater and assorted eateries and boutique shops. I also read up on the guys behind the house, like Adelson (Comdex and Venetian), and Stanley Ho (long-time kingpin of the Macau gambling industry). Interesting facts about Ho include he never gambles at the tables (as opposed to in business) and he maintains 4 wives who all seem happy to be with him.

Work. Management is easing me into my responsibilities with small projects so things are fairly relaxed right now. eBay China is in the midst of experimenting with moving to a local development model as opposed to relying on the global team to achieve faster time to market. My group in product management has been bestowed the duty of taking on product marketing and strategy in addition to our execution tasks so I’m excited about that. We have an 3-day offsite in Hangzhou next weekend so I’ll have more time to bond with my colleagues.

Social Life. I’ve almost achieved social nirvana in Shanghai. My definition of social bliss is being able to do anything you want to with people willing to do it with you. I have two Bible study groups and a new accountability group starting up. I play ball once a week at my old firm’s gym but just met the commissioner of an amateur league who runs games on weekends. I have two sets of poker buddies. When I go to the clubs I usually run into friends. I can call some friends out for singing whenever I feel the urge to croon and refine my soulful voice. I am informally recruiting a few guys to be wingmen on double dates. I have met a few businessmen who like to talk shop and go out. I am forming a group of girls that I can chill with on short notice. Another question I am pondering is when is a girl too old to date given my current predilection for bachelorhood. In classic Nelson parlance, “Why engage when there is no upside?” I don’t quite agree but I do see his logic.